why mutual fund predictions model?

Most stock prediction models predict stock performance for short term for trading strategies. We want to encourage long term investment behaviour, hence we created the first Deep Learning based model to predict performance of mutual funds for a 1 year duration.

Currently investors rely on ratings and rankings by websites like valueresearchonline.com, crisil.com and morningstar.in. In addition to these, investors look at past performance as an indication of future performance of mutual funds.

In our research, we found that ratings, rankings and past performance are all poor predictors of future mutual fund performance. Hence there was a need to create a model that can help

Our model performance over a long term

If you were to invest Rs. 1,00,000 on 1-Jun-2010 in three different ways, here is how much money you would have on 1-Jun-2018

• Nifty -> Rs. 1,97,000 - 97% total returns (8.84% IRR) in 8 years

• 5 Largecap Mutual funds based on last year’s returns -> Rs. 2,17,000 - 117% total returns (10.16% IRR) in 8 years

• JashDS AI based predicted top 5 Largecap MFs -> Rs. 3,17,000 - 217% total returns (15.51% IRR) in 8 years

Returns on investment have an exponential effect and can have a great impact on your retirement savings 30 years down the line.

What we do…

We have created the first Deep Neural Network model that uses millions of parameters to predict future performance of mutual funds. We only use historic NAV data and hence our models are completely objective and 100% data driven.

We have back tested our model on month ends in last 8 years of data, and for each period our model out performs Nifty and mutual funds that have performed best in prior 1 year.

Performance

As shown in above graph, if you were to invest Rs. 1,00,000 on 1-June-2010 in our recommended top 5 mutual funds, and changed your investments every year on 1st June to invest in latest top predictions, you would have Rs. 3,17,000 on 1-June-2018. That is Rs. 1,20,000 more than what you would have by investing in Nifty, and Rs. 1,00,000 more than what you would have by investing in top mutual funds of prior 1 year on every 1st June.

detailed quaterly performance report

Download report of our predictions as of each quarter end for last 8 years here -> JashDS Predictions Report

Here is a sample from our detailed report

• Below table contains data for predictions as of 30/06/2017

• First two columns shows 5 mutual funds that have performed best in prior 1 year (01/07/2016 to 30/06/2017), and their returns for that same period.

• Next column shows performance of those same mutual funds in next 1 year (01/07/2017 to 30/06/2018)

• Next column shows performance of Nifty for the 1 year period (01/07/2017 to 30/06/2018)

• Next two columns shows performance of 5 mutual funds selected by our Artificial Intelligence algorithm for 1 year period (01/07/2017 to 30/06/2018)

• Last column shows the ratio we recommend investors to invest in these mutual funds.

• Last row shows weighted sum of returns for three options of investment for the period (01/07/2017 to 30/06/2018)

Download complete report with historic data for last 8 years here -> JashDS Predictions Report

Whats next?

We are currently working on models to predict performance of other types of mutual funds like Midcap, Smallcap, ELSS. Soon we will create models for predicting stock performance for a long term investment. Stay tuned and subscribe to our updates below.

Want to get up to date predictions every month?

Frequently asked questions

Q1: Why are you predicting performance for 1 year duration?
A1: If you sell Equity based Mutual Fund 1 year after purchase, the profits made are considered as Long Term Capital Gain. This gives maximum benefit from tax saving. Also we encourage investment rather than trading behavior.

Q2: How frequently will you provide new recommendations?
A2: We provide monthly recommendations on last working day of each month.

Q3: For how long is a recommendation valid?
A3: Recommendation is valid for 1 month, that is use the latest recommendation we provide at any time you want to invest in Mutual Fund.

Q4: For how long should I invest? Or how long is the investment valid for?
A4: Once you invest in a mutual fund, we recommend you stay invested for 1 year. Our AI algorithm is trained to provide a recommendation for investing for a one year period.

Q5: What should I do after 1 year is over?
A5: After 1 year of investing in a mutual fund, you should check latest recommendations as of that month and switch your investments to those mutual funds.

Q6: What if I invest in mutual funds based on your recommendations, and 4 months later the recommendations change. Should I change my investments?
A6: No. Since our algorithm is tuned to find best funds for next 1 year, once you invest in something, stay invested for 1 year. It is quite likely that after a few months the recommendations will change based on latest information available. If at that point you are investing new money, invest in latest recommendations. But to get maximum tax benefit, do not change your investments before 1 year.

Q7: How should I split my investment in various mutual funds?
A7: Depending on how much money you want to invest you may want to split it in two to five different Mutual Funds. Here are our recommended splits.
Two MFs - 60%, 40%
Three MFs - 40%, 35%, 25%
Four MFs - 30%, 25%, 25%, 20%
Five MFs - 24%, 22%, 20%, 18%, 16%